The 2011 “Arab Spring” defied dominant Western and theoretical assumptions that the Arab Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is incapable of achieving political change through popular uprisings.

The case of Tunisia with its pro-democratic trajectory, as shaky as it may be, and the withdrawal of popular support from the elected government of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt clearly debunked such assumptions.

The region is in the grip of several bloody conflicts, involving not only national and sub-national actors, but also regional and international players, and transitional changes.

The larger and more important question, however, is why the region has become so volatile and where is it now heading?

Professor Amin Saikal AM FASSA is University Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Public Policy Fellow, and Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University.